Harbour Town Golf Links Course Info & Key Stats
Par: 71Distance: 7,191 (about 130 yards shorter than the average par 71)
Fairway Width: 32.3 yards (average; 38th of 80)
Average Green Size: 3,700 square feet (tiny; PGA average is ~6,000)
Green Type: Poa
Stimpmeter: 11.5
Past 5 Winning Scores: -13, -19, -22, -12, -12
Past 5 Cut Lines: Even, -2, -4, Even, Even
Key Stats (in Order of Importance): Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdie or Better Rate, Total Strokes Gained
There aren't many more drastic course setup changes from week to week than when we go from Augusta National to Harbour Town Golf Links. Augusta is super demanding off the tee and generally benefits distance with the driver.
Harbour Town downplays distance a ton and actually sees a bump in the importance of accuracy, via datagolf's course fit tool. In fact, it's the third-hardest course on Tour to gain strokes off the tee due to the setup, and the average driving distance is the third-shortest, as well.
Basically, we're looking at strokes gained: approach through putting for the week, which does not specifically harm the best drivers. It just keeps more options in play overall.
Golfers With Great Course/Event History
The best strokes gained averages among golfers who have played at least twice here over the past five years (a "-" indicates a did-not-play situation):| Golfer | FanDuel Salary | SG/ Round | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cantlay | $11,500 | 2.06 | 2 | MC | - | T3 | T7 |
| J.T. Poston | $8,900 | 1.95 | T3 | MC | T8 | T6 | - |
| Shane Lowry | $10,200 | 1.91 | T3 | T9 | MC | T3 | - |
| Cam Davis | $8,300 | 1.86 | T3 | T25 | - | - | - |
| Erik van Rooyen | $8,200 | 1.82 | T10 | - | T21 | - | - |
| Webb Simpson | $9,100 | 1.79 | T59 | T9 | 1 | T16 | T5 |
| Matt Kuchar | $10,000 | 1.79 | T3 | T18 | T41 | 2 | T23 |
| Justin Thomas | $11,000 | 1.57 | T35 | - | T8 | - | - |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $9.700 | 1.46 | T10 | MC | - | T25 | - |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $10,700 | 1.44 | MC | T4 | T14 | T39 | T14 |
| Joel Dahmen | $8,400 | 1.29 | T12 | - | T48 | T16 | - |
| Maverick McNealy | $8.700 | 1.22 | T26 | T4 | T58 | - | - |
Past winners in the field include Jordan Spieth (2022), Stewart Cink (2000, 2004, 2021), Webb Simpson (2020), C.T. Pan (2019), Satoshi Kodaira (2018), Wesley Bryan (2017), Jim Furyk (2010, 2015), Matt Kuchar (2014), Brian Gay (2009), and...Davis Love (1987, 1991, 1992, 1998, 2003).
Win Simulations for the RBC Heritage
Here are the most likely winners this week, according to my win simulation model, as well as their golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.| Jon Rahm | $12,200 | 10.4% | 43.6% | 81.9% | +850 |
| Scottie Scheffler | $12,100 | 8.8% | 43.7% | 79.3% | +800 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $11,500 | 6.0% | 35.0% | 73.6% | +1200 |
| Xander Schauffele | $10,900 | 4.6% | 34.6% | 74.6% | +2600 |
| Collin Morikawa | $11,300 | 4.5% | 29.0% | 66.9% | +1800 |
| Tony Finau | $10,400 | 4.4% | 34.5% | 74.3% | +2900 |
| Max Homa | $10,600 | 3.2% | 29.2% | 70.4% | +3100 |
| Viktor Hovland | $11,100 | 2.9% | 22.1% | 63.8% | +2000 |
| Sungjae Im | $10,300 | 2.8% | 23.9% | 67.0% | +2600 |
| Cameron Young | $10,800 | 2.5% | 17.5% | 56.5% | +2000 |
| Jordan Spieth | $11,700 | 2.3% | 19.6% | 60.1% | +1800 |
| Tom Kim | $9,900 | 2.2% | 22.5% | 65.2% | +4100 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $10,700 | 1.7% | 16.7% | 58.4% | +2700 |
| Russell Henley | $9,400 | 1.6% | 13.5% | 54.6% | +4500 |
| Justin Thomas | $11,000 | 1.5% | 15.1% | 58.1% | +2600 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $9,900 | 1.5% | 16.0% | 58.9% | +4100 |
| Keegan Bradley | $9,300 | 1.4% | 14.8% | 53.5% | +6500 |
| Matt Kuchar | $10,000 | 1.4% | 14.5% | 56.5% | +4500 |
| Justin Rose | $9,600 | 1.3% | 14.7% | 55.4% | +6000 |
| Sahith Theegala | $9,500 | 1.2% | 11.7% | 49.2% | +6000 |
| Sam Burns | $10,100 | 1.2% | 12.1% | 50.2% | +3300 |
| Brendon Todd | $8,200 | 1.1% | 13.6% | 52.5% | +19000 |
| Taylor Montgomery | $9,000 | 1.1% | 14.1% | 54.7% | +10000 |
| Corey Conners | $9,800 | 1.0% | 11.0% | 52.4% | +5000 |
| Tom Hoge | $9,000 | 1.0% | 13.5% | 53.2% | +9500 |
| Chris Kirk | $9,600 | 1.0% | 12.0% | 53.9% | +6000 |
| Si Woo Kim | $9,500 | 1.0% | 10.4% | 51.3% | +6500 |
| Andrew Putnam | $8,100 | 0.8% | 13.0% | 54.4% | +21000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $9,700 | 0.8% | 12.3% | 53.9% | +5500 |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,700 | 0.8% | 11.6% | 52.5% | +5500 |
| Adam Hadwin | $8,800 | 0.8% | 10.6% | 47.9% | +11000 |
| Denny McCarthy | $8,700 | 0.8% | 11.2% | 51.6% | +12000 |
| Shane Lowry | $10,200 | 0.7% | 8.7% | 46.3% | +2900 |
| Kyoung-hoon Lee | $8,500 | 0.7% | 9.1% | 48.0% | +14000 |
| Brian Harman | $8,800 | 0.7% | 9.3% | 48.9% | +11000 |
| Wyndham Clark | $8,700 | 0.6% | 7.9% | 46.1% | +10000 |
| J.J. Spaun | $8,200 | 0.6% | 8.5% | 46.6% | +10000 |
| Taylor Moore | $8,600 | 0.6% | 8.6% | 46.3% | +12000 |
| Keith Mitchell | $9,200 | 0.6% | 7.9% | 46.2% | +10000 |
| Adam Svensson | $8,300 | 0.6% | 7.4% | 42.4% | +19000 |
| Kurt Kitayama | $9,300 | 0.6% | 6.7% | 40.9% | +10000 |
| J.T. Poston | $8,900 | 0.5% | 8.0% | 47.0% | +5500 |
| Sam Ryder | $8,600 | 0.5% | 9.5% | 48.8% | +12000 |
| Gary Woodland | $9,100 | 0.5% | 5.4% | 37.9% | +9500 |
| Stephan Jaeger | $8,000 | 0.5% | 5.8% | 43.3% | +19000 |
| Nick Taylor | $8,400 | 0.5% | 6.8% | 45.0% | +16000 |
Win Simulation Analysis and Best Bets for the RBC Heritage
The +850 number on Jon Rahm is tempting, mathematically, yet going back-to-back after winning the green jacket is a pretty tall task and something that my model isn't built to account for.The better betting values at the top of the board are Xander Schauffele (+2600) and Tony Finau (+2900), two names my model tends to like a lot. Max Homa (+3100) is another name with some value attached to his name in the model.
Tom Kim (+4100) and Keegan Bradley (+6500) are appealing mid-rangers (or long shots, depending on your perspective).
Names I'm eying for finishing positions (i.e. top-10s and top-20s) with consideration for partial-unit outrights include Brendon Todd (+19000), Andrew Putnam (+24000), and Taylor Montgomery (+10000).
